Artificial intelligence data centers are becoming one of the fastest-growing new sources of demand for critical minerals. Every hyperscale facility depends on battery energy storage, semiconductor packaging, and power infrastructure built from lithium, tin, tantalum, copper, and other mined materials.
Key Takeaways
- Global data center electricity use is projected to roughly double to about 950 TWh by 2030, and each facility needs on-site battery storage built with lithium.
- Stationary storage is forecast to account for about 30 percent of global lithium demand in 2026, rising to 36 percent by 2030.
- Tin (solder) and tantalum (capacitors) are wired into every server, tying all three of these minerals to the same demand engine.
For most of the past decade, the critical minerals conversation was dominated by electric vehicles and the energy transition. The AI buildout has added a second engine. Data centers are capital projects measured in billions of dollars, they are being built on multi-year schedules by the world's largest technology companies, and each one carries a mineral bill of materials that begins long before a single server is switched on.
How Big Is the AI Data Center Buildout?
Global data center electricity consumption is projected to roughly double to about 950 terawatt hours by 2030, approaching 3 percent of worldwide electricity demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1]. Powering facilities of that size around the clock requires more than grid connections. It requires on-site battery energy storage to smooth loads, ride through interruptions, and balance the sharp power swings that AI training workloads create.
BloombergNEF analysts expect global energy storage capacity to exceed 100 gigawatts in 2026 and to double to roughly 200 gigawatts over the coming decade as hyperscalers race to build capacity [2]. Unlike consumer purchases, this demand is tied to committed capital expenditure programs rather than household budgets, which makes it comparatively insensitive to short-term economic conditions.
How Much Lithium Do AI Data Centers Use?
Lithium demand tied specifically to AI data center energy storage is forecast to rise from roughly 15,000 tonnes in 2025 to nearly 70,000 tonnes by 2035, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence [3]. Battery energy storage systems are the most direct link between AI and the lithium market. J.P. Morgan projects that stationary storage will account for about 30 percent of global lithium demand in 2026, rising to 36 percent by 2030 [4].
The broader demand picture reinforces the trend. UN Trade and Development projects that total lithium demand will grow by more than 350 percent between 2024 and 2040 as electrification, digitalization, and data infrastructure expand together [5]. Storage demand grew by roughly 71 percent in 2025 alone, and analysts expect further strong growth in 2026 [6].
Why Does AI Increase Tin Demand?
Because every circuit board and semiconductor package in a data center is joined with tin-based solder, and solder accounts for roughly half of global tin demand [7]. The digital transition, including data centers and semiconductors, has become a major force behind tin's recent price strength [7]. Industry group SEMI projects global silicon wafer shipments will rise 5.2 percent year on year in 2026, with AI infrastructure a key driver of procurement volumes [8].
Advanced packaging compounds the effect. Smaller, denser chip designs and high-purity lead-free alloys mean higher tin loading per unit of output, so the tin intensity of electronics is rising even as devices shrink [9].
Where Does Tantalum Fit In?
Tantalum goes into the capacitors that keep servers and power management systems stable. Tantalum capacitors are prized in data center and telecommunications equipment for their capacitance density and reliability at high temperatures. The IEA lists tantalum among the minor materials on which modern high-tech industries depend, alongside gallium, germanium, indium, tin, and the magnet rare earths [1]. As server counts multiply, so does the installed base of components that rely on it.
Will AI Overtake EVs as a Demand Driver?
No, not on current forecasts, and it is worth being clear about proportions. Analysts at Benchmark caution that data centers will remain a relatively small share of total battery raw material demand compared with electric vehicles, which continue to dominate consumption [3]. The significance of AI is not that it replaces existing demand drivers, but that it adds a new, fast-growing, capex-driven layer on top of them at a time when supply is already concentrated and constrained.
What Does This Mean for Supply?
It adds pressure to supply chains that are already concentrated. The IEA notes that over the past two years the top refining countries accounted for more than three quarters of total growth in refined critical minerals supply, with China the dominant refiner for most energy minerals [1]. The United States has no domestic mine production of tin and imports all of the tantalum it consumes, subjects covered in detail elsewhere in this Knowledge Centre.
The AI buildout ties three of the most strategically watched minerals, lithium, tin, and tantalum, to the same demand engine. These are the minerals Lion Rock Resources is exploring for at the past-producing Volney Project in the Black Hills of South Dakota.
AI and Critical Minerals: The Numbers
| Indicator | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Data center electricity use by 2030 | ~950 TWh (roughly double 2024) | IEA [1] |
| Global energy storage capacity | >100 GW in 2026, ~200 GW next decade | BloombergNEF [2] |
| AI storage lithium demand | ~15,000 t (2025) to ~70,000 t (2035) | Benchmark [3] |
| Storage share of lithium demand | 30% (2026) to 36% (2030) | J.P. Morgan [4] |
| Total lithium demand growth 2024 to 2040 | More than 350% | UNCTAD [5] |
| Solder share of global tin demand | ~50% | Coface [7] |
Frequently Asked Questions
How much lithium do AI data centers use?
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts lithium demand from AI data center energy storage rising from about 15,000 tonnes in 2025 to nearly 70,000 tonnes by 2035, driven by the battery systems that keep facilities running around the clock [3].
Which critical minerals do data centers need?
The main ones are lithium for battery energy storage, tin for the solder in every circuit board and chip package, tantalum for capacitors, and copper for power distribution, along with materials used in grid and cooling infrastructure [1].
This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
[1] International Energy Agency, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026
[2] BloombergNEF analysis, as reported by CME Group OpenMarkets, March 2026. https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/metals/2026/Why-the-AI-Boom-is-Boosting-Lithium-Demand.html
[3] Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as reported by Investing News Network, May 2026. https://investingnews.com/ai-fueling-battery-metals-demand/
[4] J.P. Morgan, Asia Pacific Equity Research note on lithium and energy storage, October 2025, as reported by Stockhead. https://stockhead.com.au/resources/high-voltage-jpmorgan-lifts-lithium-price-forecasts-as-big-batteries-drive-market-to-deficit/
[5] UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Global Trade Update, June 2026. https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-june-2026-shifting-dynamics-critical-minerals-trade
[6] Shanghai Metals Market data, as reported by CarbonCredits.com, April 2026. https://carboncredits.com/lithium-prices-climb-again-in-2026-sending-stocks-skyward-nili/
[7] Coface, Tin Is Riding High on the Metals Market's Latest Surge, 2026. https://www.coface.com/news-economy-and-insights/tin-is-riding-high-on-the-metals-market-s-latest-surge
[8] SEMI wafer shipment projections, as reported by Somerset Solders, May 2026. https://www.somersetsolders.com/blog/post/solder-cost-pressures-in-2026-%7C-industry-analysis-%7C-somerset-solders
[9] Mordor Intelligence, Tin Market Outlook 2026 to 2031. https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/tin-market
Related Pages
Critical Minerals and China Supply Chain Risk